Market Trends
Coffee Production Trends by Region
Global Overview
World coffee production reached a record 178.7 million 60-kg bags in 2025/26, up 2.5% year-on-year. This growth is driven by recoveries in Asia and record outputs in Africa, offsetting slight declines in Latin America. Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia remain the top three producers, contributing about 37%, 17%, and 8% of global output respectively. Overall, Latin America (including Brazil) accounts for roughly 55–60% of world coffee supply, Asia & Oceania ~25–30%, and Africa about 10–15%. Africa's share has fallen from ~25% in the 1960s to ~11% today, but initiatives like the G25 African Coffee Summit aim to boost it to 20% by 2030.
Africa: Rising Output Amid Challenges
African production is growing modestly, led by Ethiopia and Uganda. Ethiopia achieved a record 11.6 million bags in 2025/26 (about 6–7% of world output) after replanting over half its coffee area with higher-yield varieties and improving farm practices. Ethiopia's production has trended up in recent years (from ~7.3 million bags in 2021/22 to 10.6 in 2024/25), and exports rose to 7.8 million bags. Uganda, Africa's other coffee powerhouse, produced ~6.9 million bags (5.8 Robusta, 1.1 Arabica) in 2025/26. Uganda has now surpassed Ethiopia as Africa's top coffee exporter, shipping 7.17 million bags (~47,600 tonnes) in the year to May 2025. This success is credited to nationwide replanting programs and farmer support that expanded coffee area ~5% in five years. Uganda's coffee exports earned nearly $2 billion in 2024 and constitute ~20% of its foreign exchange earnings.
Latin America: Brazil Leads Amid Fluctuations
Latin America remains the largest coffee-producing region. Brazil, by far the world's largest producer, harvested ~65.0 million bags in 2025/26. Notably, Brazil's output is undergoing a shift: Robusta (called Conilon in Brazil) hit a record 24.1 million bags in 2025/26 thanks to favorable rains in Espirito Santo and Bahia, while Arabica output fell to ~40.9 million bags due to drought and heat in Minas Gerais and São Paulo. Brazilian production is cyclical, and the latest Arabica decline follows several years of weather shocks (frosts and drought in 2021–2024) that hindered tree recovery. Despite these challenges, Brazil's sheer scale and high-yield farming (including mechanization) keep it dominant.
Asia and Oceania: Recovery in Vietnam & Indonesia
Asia is the second-largest coffee-producing region, anchored by Vietnam – the world's #2 producer and top Robusta supplier. After a weather-induced dip, Vietnam's production is recovering to an estimated 31.0 million bags in 2025/26, near its all-time high. Good rains and high coffee prices have encouraged Vietnamese farmers to invest in fertilizers and inputs, boosting yields. About 95% of Vietnam's crop is Robusta, grown in the Central Highlands. Drought had constrained Vietnam to ~29 million bags in 2024/25, but 2025/26's rebound, if realized, will solidify Vietnam's ~17% share of world production.
Export/Import and Global Trade Flows
Major Exporters
Brazil and Vietnam are the two largest coffee exporters, but trade flows are shifting slightly as other origins gain ground. Brazilian exports are actually projected to fall for a second year in 2025, to about 41.8 million bags (all forms). A smaller off-year Arabica crop and strong domestic demand, combined with importers drawing down stocks, have reduced Brazil's exportable surplus. Vietnam's exports, by contrast, are rebounding – forecast up to 24.6 million bags in 2025/26 as its production recovers. Other notable exporters include Colombia (~10.7 million bags of mostly Arabica in 2025, mainly to the US and EU), Indonesia (~6.5 million bags, with increased Robusta exports), Honduras (~5–6 million), Ethiopia (~7.8 million), and Uganda (~6.5–7 million).
Major Importers/Consumers
Europe is the world's largest coffee importing region, accounting for roughly one-third of global consumption. In 2023, Europe imported about 3.6 million tonnes of green coffee (60+ million bags), though imports dipped ~9.7% that year due to a global supply shortfall and economic factors. The European Union (especially Germany, Italy, France, Spain, and the Netherlands) imports the bulk of this, mostly as green beans which are then roasted within Europe. North America (led by the United States) is the next largest importing region (~18% of consumption). The United States alone imports around 25 million bags annually, making it the single biggest national coffee market. The Asia-Pacific region's imports have been rising fast – it now represents about 26% of global coffee consumption.
Global and Regional Consumption Trends
Global coffee consumption continues to climb to record highs. For coffee year 2025/26, world consumption is forecast at 169.4 million bags, a record level and about +3 million bags vs. the prior year. Demand growth is especially robust in emerging markets, even as it plateaus in traditional high-consumption countries. Europe remains the largest coffee-drinking region, accounting for about 30% of global consumption in 2023/24. Per capita consumption in many European countries is very high (5–8 kg per person annually, with Scandinavians among the world's heaviest coffee drinkers). However, total volumes in Europe are fairly mature and stable – future growth in the global market share is expected to come from elsewhere.
Emerging Markets
The most dynamic growth is in the Asia-Pacific region, where coffee culture is rapidly expanding. Asia-Pacific now accounts for ~25–26% of global consumption, up from nearer 20% a decade ago. China is the standout example: coffee was a niche beverage there until recently, but China's consumption has grown ~150% in the last 10 years, from just ~2 million bags in the early 2010s to over 6 million bags today (2024/25). China is now estimated to be the world's 6th largest consumer of coffee, as urban middle-class millennials develop a taste for lattes and cold brew. This rapid rise is fueled by an explosion of cafés (both global chains and domestic brands), especially in major cities, and by app-based delivery of coffee drinks.
Price Trends: Arabica, Robusta, and Specialty Coffee
Coffee prices have been extremely volatile. After years of oversupply-driven lows, the market tightened significantly from 2021 onward, causing a dramatic price surge. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) composite price index climbed over 90% between mid-2021 and mid-2023. By late 2023 and through 2024, international coffee prices kept rising, fueled by supply deficits in major origins. A series of setbacks – drought in Brazil, and limited harvests in Vietnam and Indonesia – curtailed output just as global demand hit record levels. This pushed benchmark prices to their highest in over a decade.
In the Arabica market, the ICE New York futures (the "C price") soared: in September 2025 arabica futures spiked above $4.21 per pound, the highest since 2011 and ~50% higher than two months prior. That surge was driven by anxiety over Brazilian weather (dryness during flowering) and low exchange stockpiles, exacerbated by speculative fund buying. This price rally significantly increased costs for roasters and retailers, translating into higher retail coffee prices for consumers.
Robusta prices have likewise seen a strong uptrend. Robusta (traded on ICE London) historically is cheaper than arabica, but the gap narrowed as robusta hit multi-year highs in 2024. Poor robusta harvests in Vietnam and Indonesia led to a supply squeeze, causing robusta prices to climb throughout 2024. Many roasters who normally use robusta for instant coffee or as a blend component faced sharply higher costs. By mid-2024, robusta futures were at their highest levels in at least 15 years (surpassing $2,700/ton), reflecting tight inventories.
Evolving Market Shifts: Specialty, Cold Brew, and Ready-to-Drink
Consumer preferences in coffee are rapidly evolving, giving rise to new market segments and product formats. Specialty coffee – defined by high quality, distinct origins, and often ethical sourcing – has moved from a niche to the mainstream in many markets. Independent cafes and third-wave roasters have proliferated in the last decade, educating consumers to appreciate single-origin pour-overs and expertly crafted espresso. The result: a surge in specialty consumption. Similar trends are visible in Europe and Asia, with cities like London, Seoul, Melbourne, and Shanghai boasting vibrant specialty coffee scenes.
Another major shift is the popularity of cold coffee beverages and ready-to-drink (RTD) products. Cold brew – coffee brewed slowly with cold water – has boomed in the U.S. and spread globally, prized for its smooth, less acidic profile. Many cafés now offer cold brew on tap (often as nitro cold brew with a stout-like creamy texture). Meanwhile, RTD coffee (bottled or canned coffee drinks, from sweetened iced coffees to black cold brews and milk-based lattes) is one of the fastest-growing coffee segments worldwide. In the U.S., RTD is now the third most popular preparation method among specialty coffee drinkers, having jumped 83% in usage since 2023.
Sustainability Concerns and Certifications
Sustainability has become a central concern in the global coffee industry – from environmental impact in producing regions to fair incomes for farmers. Coffee, often grown by smallholders in biodiversity-rich areas, faces scrutiny over issues like deforestation, climate change, and poverty in farming communities. In response, a plethora of certification programs and initiatives have grown over the past two decades: Fairtrade, Rainforest Alliance (RA) (which merged with UTZ), Organic, Smithsonian Bird-Friendly, and others. These programs set standards for environmental practices (e.g. preserving forest cover, avoiding harmful pesticides) and social conditions (fair wages, community development), and in the case of Fairtrade, a price floor of $1.40/lb for Arabica plus a premium is enforced to help stabilize farmer incomes.
However, in recent years the market share of certified coffee has stagnated, despite increasing consumer awareness. The latest Coffee Barometer report (2023) observes that the volume of certified coffee purchased by the major roasters has even decreased slightly, indicating that demand for certified beans hasn't kept up with potential supply. In practical terms, it's estimated that well over 50% of global coffee production could meet one certification or another, but a large portion is sold without the certified label due to limited buyer uptake or farmers dropping out when premiums disappoint.
Impacts of Climate Change on Coffee Production
Climate change poses an existential threat to coffee production in the long run. Coffee is highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall patterns – the Arabica species in particular requires a fairly narrow range of conditions (mild temperatures, cool nights, specific rainfall timing) typically found in high-altitude tropics. As the planet warms, those optimal conditions are shifting and shrinking. Scientists project that by 2050, the land area suitable for coffee could decline by roughly 50% under a mid-range climate scenario. In practical terms, many low-altitude or equatorial regions may become too hot or climatically unstable for coffee.
Coffee farmers are already observing the effects of erratic climate: more frequent droughts and heat waves, unpredictable rains that disrupt flowering and cherry development, and increased incidence of pests and diseases. A notable case was the coffee leaf rust (roya) outbreak in Central America around 2012–2013, which was exacerbated by warmer temperatures at higher altitudes than usual. The rust fungus devastated over half a million hectares, causing massive crop losses and unemployment for an estimated 350,000 people.
Innovations in Coffee Processing, Logistics, and Technology
From farm to cup, technology and innovation are transforming the coffee industry. Facing challenges of cost, quality, and sustainability, producers and companies are increasingly turning to new processing techniques, logistical improvements, and advanced tech solutions to stay competitive.
On the Farm – Improved Cultivation: Innovation begins at origin with agronomy. Aside from new plant varieties, farmers are adopting precision agriculture tools. In Brazil's large plantations, for instance, drone and satellite imaging are used to monitor crop health and estimate yields. Sophisticated farm management software can predict the optimal harvest time for cherries by analyzing weather and plant data – neural network models have reportedly increased yield predictions accuracy and even guided harvest scheduling. IoT sensors are being deployed in some estates to track soil moisture, soil pH, and weather in real time, enabling more efficient irrigation and fertilization.
Coffee Processing Innovations: After harvest, processing the coffee cherries into green beans is an area ripe for innovation. Traditional methods – washed (fermenting and washing off pulp) or natural (sun-drying the whole cherry) – have been joined by experimental processes that can enhance flavor profiles. "Anaerobic fermentation", for example, is a trend where coffee cherries or mucilage are fermented in sealed tanks without oxygen, often yielding novel fruity or spiced flavor notes sought by specialty buyers. Some farms in Costa Rica, Colombia, and Indonesia are pioneering controlled fermentations (adding specific yeasts or using temperature-controlled vats) to create unique coffees that fetch premium prices.
Key Players and Emerging Markets
The global coffee landscape is shaped by a few key producing countries and several emerging players in both production and consumption. Below is a snapshot of the major coffee countries and markets:
Brazil: The world's largest coffee producer and exporter. Brazil contributes roughly 1/3 of global coffee output, with 2024/25 production at ~64.7 million bags (both Arabica and Robusta). It's a dominant force in Arabica, supplying the commodity benchmark "C" market, and has rapidly grown its Robusta production to record levels. Brazil is also a huge consumer – Brazilians drank 22.3 million bags in 2025, making Brazil the second-largest coffee consuming country after the US.
Vietnam: A true emerging star of the past few decades, Vietnam is now firmly the #2 producer globally, accounting for about 17% of world production. It specializes in Robusta coffee – nearly 95% of Vietnamese output is Robusta – grown mostly in the Central Highlands. Vietnam's rise from virtually no coffee exports in the 1980s to over 29 million bags in 2024/25 has reshaped the market, providing abundant supply for instant coffee and lower-cost blends.
Colombia: Long known for its marketing icon "Juan Valdez," Colombia is the #3 coffee producer in the world and the top producer of mild washed Arabica. It produces ~12–13 million bags annually in recent years. Colombian coffee, grown in the Andes mountains, is prized for its quality and is a staple for many premium blends. The country has a robust internal coffee organization (FNC) supporting farmers.
Ethiopia: Often called the birthplace of coffee, Ethiopia is Africa's top producer and famous for its high-quality Arabica varieties (such as Yirgacheffe, Sidamo, Harrar). Ethiopia's output hit a record 11.6 million bags in 2025/26, making it roughly the 5th largest producer worldwide. What's unique is that Ethiopia retains a huge portion of its coffee for domestic use – as noted, nearly half of its production (3.7 million bags) is consumed at home.
Uganda: Uganda is an emerging African powerhouse, now the continent's #2 producer (after Ethiopia) but #1 in exports as noted. It grows substantial Robusta (indigenous to the Lake Victoria basin) and some Arabica in highland areas on Mt. Elgon and the Rwenzoris. Uganda's production has been on an uptrend, reaching about 6–7 million bags recently. Government and private-sector initiatives (like distributing free coffee seedlings and improving extension services) have paid off with steady growth.
Conclusion
The global coffee market is a complex mix of established giants (Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia), rising stars (like Uganda, China in production; and Asia, Middle East in consumption), and countless smaller players whose unique coffees add diversity to the industry. The balance of power can shift – for instance, if Vietnam continues to innovate, it could further challenge Brazil in volume; if African nations achieve their 2030 goals, Africa could regain a larger share of production. On the consumption side, traditional Western markets are reaching saturation, while new generations of coffee drinkers in East and South Asia promise to drive the next wave of demand growth.
All these dynamics make the coffee trade truly global, interlinking a farmer in rural Ethiopia with a barista in New York, and a trader in Ho Chi Minh City with a consumer in Shanghai. The trends discussed – from production shifts and trade patterns to climate impacts and changing consumer tastes – will shape the future of coffee, an industry that is at once traditional and constantly renewing itself on a world stage.